In California's top-two primary for the open 48th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus heavily favors Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond at 93% to advance, driven by his lead in the April SurveyUSA poll (25%), strong fundraising ($1.4 million), and endorsement from retiring Rep. Darrell Issa, amid GOP consolidation in the newly redrawn D+2 swing district. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar follows at 64% implied probability, buoyed by endorsements and fundraising edge over rivals like Marni von Wilpert (47¢) and Brandon Riker (43¢), whose intra-party infighting—highlighted in recent convention battles and attack ads—has fragmented the crowded Democratic field, per April analyses. Late polling shifts or voter turnout surges could alter top-two advancement.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJim Desmond
94%
Ammar Campa-Najjar
65%
Marni von Wilpert
31%
Brandon Riker
16%
Abel Chavez
7%
Mike Schaefer
6%
Corinna Contreras
5%
Kevin O'Neil
4%
Eric Shaw
2%
Luis Reyna
2%
Ferguson Porter
2%
Stephen Clemons
2%
$3,194 ปริมาณ
Jim Desmond
94%
Ammar Campa-Najjar
65%
Marni von Wilpert
31%
Brandon Riker
16%
Abel Chavez
7%
Mike Schaefer
6%
Corinna Contreras
5%
Kevin O'Neil
4%
Eric Shaw
2%
Luis Reyna
2%
Ferguson Porter
2%
Stephen Clemons
2%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 22, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...In California's top-two primary for the open 48th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus heavily favors Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond at 93% to advance, driven by his lead in the April SurveyUSA poll (25%), strong fundraising ($1.4 million), and endorsement from retiring Rep. Darrell Issa, amid GOP consolidation in the newly redrawn D+2 swing district. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar follows at 64% implied probability, buoyed by endorsements and fundraising edge over rivals like Marni von Wilpert (47¢) and Brandon Riker (43¢), whose intra-party infighting—highlighted in recent convention battles and attack ads—has fragmented the crowded Democratic field, per April analyses. Late polling shifts or voter turnout surges could alter top-two advancement.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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