The Berlin state election on September 20 produced a Grüne vote share of 14.3 percent, placing the result firmly inside the 14-17 percent band and aligning with pre-election polling averages near 15-16 percent. Traders have converged on this range because the preliminary counts, exit polls, and district-level data consistently show the party finishing fourth, down from 18.4 percent in 2023 amid losses concentrated in former strongholds such as Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg to Die Linke. High turnout of 74.2 percent and the broader shift toward Die Linke at 25.7 percent further stabilized the outcome. Only a material revision during final certification or an unprecedented recount could move the share outside the bracket, scenarios viewed as remote given the current margin.