Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1% share from 2023 and reflecting sustained gains from voter concerns over immigration, energy costs, and housing shortages. These trends aligned with the party's stronger performance in eastern districts and national momentum seen in concurrent state votes. The September 20 results confirmed 16.3%, locking the 14-17% band as the decisive range. Late shifts from final tallies or turnout anomalies in specific boroughs remain the main variables that could push the share marginally outside this interval.