Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBank of Mexico Decision in September?
Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
No change 95.8%
25 bps increase 2.5%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$52,849 ปริมาณ
$52,849 ปริมาณ
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
96%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 95.8%
25 bps increase 2.5%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$52,849 ปริมาณ
$52,849 ปริมาณ
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,662 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,261 ปริมาณ
2%
No change
$27,353 ปริมาณ
96%
25 bps increase
$6,540 ปริมาณ
2%
50+ bps increase
$3,034 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,849วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,849วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?
69%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
98%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?
51%
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