Banxico's unanimous August 2026 decision to hold the overnight interbank rate at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no change in November. Following cumulative easing that ended the cycle at that level in May, the board has emphasized more gradual disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.10% in July yet core measures remaining near 3.95% amid persistent services prices. Upward revisions to the convergence timeline—now projected for late 2027—alongside risks from trade policy shifts, peso volatility, and external shocks have reinforced the restrictive stance. Analyst surveys align with an extended pause through year-end. A sharper-than-expected drop in core inflation or pronounced economic slack could still tilt odds toward a modest cut, while renewed price pressures might support tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBank of Mexico Decision in November?
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7.0%
25 bps increase 2.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
$13,587 ปริมาณ
$13,587 ปริมาณ
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7.0%
25 bps increase 2.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
$13,587 ปริมาณ
$13,587 ปริมาณ
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$533 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$816 ปริมาณ
7%
No change
$11,382 ปริมาณ
91%
25 bps increase
$523 ปริมาณ
2%
50+ bps increase
$334 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's unanimous August 2026 decision to hold the overnight interbank rate at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no change in November. Following cumulative easing that ended the cycle at that level in May, the board has emphasized more gradual disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.10% in July yet core measures remaining near 3.95% amid persistent services prices. Upward revisions to the convergence timeline—now projected for late 2027—alongside risks from trade policy shifts, peso volatility, and external shocks have reinforced the restrictive stance. Analyst surveys align with an extended pause through year-end. A sharper-than-expected drop in core inflation or pronounced economic slack could still tilt odds toward a modest cut, while renewed price pressures might support tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,587วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's unanimous August 2026 decision to hold the overnight interbank rate at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no change in November. Following cumulative easing that ended the cycle at that level in May, the board has emphasized more gradual disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.10% in July yet core measures remaining near 3.95% amid persistent services prices. Upward revisions to the convergence timeline—now projected for late 2027—alongside risks from trade policy shifts, peso volatility, and external shocks have reinforced the restrictive stance. Analyst surveys align with an extended pause through year-end. A sharper-than-expected drop in core inflation or pronounced economic slack could still tilt odds toward a modest cut, while renewed price pressures might support tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,587วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Banxico's unanimous August 2026 decision to hold the overnight interbank rate at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no change in November. Following cumulative easing that ended the cycle at that level in May, the board has emphasized more gradual disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.10% in July yet core measures remaining near 3.95% amid persistent services prices. Upward revisions to the convergence timeline—now projected for late 2027—alongside risks from trade policy shifts, peso volatility, and external shocks have reinforced the restrictive stance. Analyst surveys align with an extended pause through year-end. A sharper-than-expected drop in core inflation or pronounced economic slack could still tilt odds toward a modest cut, while renewed price pressures might support tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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