**Market-implied odds favor no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, with a 76.5% probability, reflecting expectations of a measured tightening cycle after the June hike to 1%.** Recent inflation data showing core CPI near 1.8-1.9% in July, combined with yen weakness sustaining import cost pressures, keep upside risks to the 2% target in focus, yet Governor Ueda's signals of data-dependent adjustments and board discussions at every meeting suggest the next 25-basis-point move may occur in September. Economists broadly anticipate one additional hike by year-end, aligning with the BOJ's gradual normalization toward a neutral rate around 2%. The low probabilities for larger moves or cuts underscore trader consensus on steady but not accelerated policy shifts amid stable labor conditions and moderating energy price effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,484 ปริมาณ
$68,484 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,484 ปริมาณ
$68,484 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 ปริมาณ
<1%
No change
$29,685 ปริมาณ
77%
25 bps increase
$23,625 ปริมาณ
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 ปริมาณ
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds favor no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, with a 76.5% probability, reflecting expectations of a measured tightening cycle after the June hike to 1%.** Recent inflation data showing core CPI near 1.8-1.9% in July, combined with yen weakness sustaining import cost pressures, keep upside risks to the 2% target in focus, yet Governor Ueda's signals of data-dependent adjustments and board discussions at every meeting suggest the next 25-basis-point move may occur in September. Economists broadly anticipate one additional hike by year-end, aligning with the BOJ's gradual normalization toward a neutral rate around 2%. The low probabilities for larger moves or cuts underscore trader consensus on steady but not accelerated policy shifts amid stable labor conditions and moderating energy price effects.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$68,484วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds favor no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, with a 76.5% probability, reflecting expectations of a measured tightening cycle after the June hike to 1%.** Recent inflation data showing core CPI near 1.8-1.9% in July, combined with yen weakness sustaining import cost pressures, keep upside risks to the 2% target in focus, yet Governor Ueda's signals of data-dependent adjustments and board discussions at every meeting suggest the next 25-basis-point move may occur in September. Economists broadly anticipate one additional hike by year-end, aligning with the BOJ's gradual normalization toward a neutral rate around 2%. The low probabilities for larger moves or cuts underscore trader consensus on steady but not accelerated policy shifts amid stable labor conditions and moderating energy price effects.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$68,484วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, with a 76.5% probability, reflecting expectations of a measured tightening cycle after the June hike to 1%.** Recent inflation data showing core CPI near 1.8-1.9% in July, combined with yen weakness sustaining import cost pressures, keep upside risks to the 2% target in focus, yet Governor Ueda's signals of data-dependent adjustments and board discussions at every meeting suggest the next 25-basis-point move may occur in September. Economists broadly anticipate one additional hike by year-end, aligning with the BOJ's gradual normalization toward a neutral rate around 2%. The low probabilities for larger moves or cuts underscore trader consensus on steady but not accelerated policy shifts amid stable labor conditions and moderating energy price effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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