Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have repeatedly disrupted operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), including a roughly two-month suspension of commercial flights earlier in 2026 that ended with a gradual resumption of limited international and regional service on April 25. Trader positioning on near-term departure dates reflects ongoing monitoring of airspace restrictions, airline scheduling decisions by carriers such as Iran Air and Mahan Air, and any signals of renewed escalation or de-escalation in the region. Current live flight data shows scheduled departures and arrivals continuing into June, supporting elevated implied probabilities for activity by mid-month and through June 30. Key variables that could shift outcomes include diplomatic engagements between the United States and Iranian officials, developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz, or new military or security measures that prompt further suspensions.