**Recent reliability issues with OpenAI's Codex, the AI coding agent powering web, API, CLI, and VS Code extension access, have driven the 77.5% market-implied odds for another outage before the end of 2026.** A full 56-minute outage hit on September 25, 2026, stemming from an internal issue that produced elevated errors across all components; OpenAI identified the root cause, applied a mitigation, and later reset usage limits for paid Codex and ChatGPT users as compensation. This followed other September incidents, including degraded performance and elevated errors on September 29 affecting Codex alongside ChatGPT and the broader API. Earlier 2026 reports also noted capacity constraints, rate-limit adjustments, and intermittent problems tied to scaling large language model workloads under heavy developer demand. These events highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining uptime for a high-traffic AI coding platform amid rapid feature expansion and user growth. With multiple confirmed disruptions clustered in recent weeks and no public details on major infrastructure overhauls, traders view recurring instability as likely to produce at least one additional incident by year-end. Upcoming catalysts include any OpenAI status updates on capacity or new model releases that could further stress the system.