South Africa’s dominant start in AFCON 2027 Group D qualifying has anchored trader consensus on their group leadership, following a 2-1 victory over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea that delivered a six-point, plus-six goal-difference cushion after two matchdays. Guinea sits second on three points after edging Kenya 1-0, but the gap in results and form leaves them as clear underdogs for the single available qualification berth—Kenya already advances as co-host. Eritrea and Kenya trail further behind with limited scoring threat and tougher remaining fixtures through November 2026 and March 2027. South Africa’s early momentum and depth under their current coaching setup continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.