The recent IMF World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, driven by assumptions of limited geopolitical conflict lifting energy prices and weighing on emerging-market momentum, forms the primary catalyst anchoring trader consensus near the 3.0–3.2 percent range. This shift from the January projection of 3.3 percent has tightened implied probabilities across the leading outcomes, with market-implied odds reflecting balanced assessments of resilient U.S. and advanced-economy performance offset by softer trade and commodity dynamics. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 inflation releases, central-bank policy signals, and any escalation or de-escalation in trade tensions, which could shift the distribution toward either 3.0 percent or 3.3 percent thresholds as new data arrives.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 4.3%
3.7%+ 1.8%
3.5% <1%
$17,559 ปริมาณ
$17,559 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
38%
3.0%
38%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
38%
3.3%
8%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
36%
3.7%+
22%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 4.3%
3.7%+ 1.8%
3.5% <1%
$17,559 ปริมาณ
$17,559 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,766 ปริมาณ
38%
3.0%
$481 ปริมาณ
38%
3.1%
$470 ปริมาณ
37%
3.2%
$1,691 ปริมาณ
38%
3.3%
$3,380 ปริมาณ
8%
3.4%
$3,527 ปริมาณ
8%
3.5%
$3,006 ปริมาณ
1%
3.6%
$452 ปริมาณ
36%
3.7%+
$787 ปริมาณ
22%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The recent IMF World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, driven by assumptions of limited geopolitical conflict lifting energy prices and weighing on emerging-market momentum, forms the primary catalyst anchoring trader consensus near the 3.0–3.2 percent range. This shift from the January projection of 3.3 percent has tightened implied probabilities across the leading outcomes, with market-implied odds reflecting balanced assessments of resilient U.S. and advanced-economy performance offset by softer trade and commodity dynamics. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 inflation releases, central-bank policy signals, and any escalation or de-escalation in trade tensions, which could shift the distribution toward either 3.0 percent or 3.3 percent thresholds as new data arrives.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,559วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The recent IMF World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, driven by assumptions of limited geopolitical conflict lifting energy prices and weighing on emerging-market momentum, forms the primary catalyst anchoring trader consensus near the 3.0–3.2 percent range. This shift from the January projection of 3.3 percent has tightened implied probabilities across the leading outcomes, with market-implied odds reflecting balanced assessments of resilient U.S. and advanced-economy performance offset by softer trade and commodity dynamics. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 inflation releases, central-bank policy signals, and any escalation or de-escalation in trade tensions, which could shift the distribution toward either 3.0 percent or 3.3 percent thresholds as new data arrives.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,559วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent IMF World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, driven by assumptions of limited geopolitical conflict lifting energy prices and weighing on emerging-market momentum, forms the primary catalyst anchoring trader consensus near the 3.0–3.2 percent range. This shift from the January projection of 3.3 percent has tightened implied probabilities across the leading outcomes, with market-implied odds reflecting balanced assessments of resilient U.S. and advanced-economy performance offset by softer trade and commodity dynamics. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 inflation releases, central-bank policy signals, and any escalation or de-escalation in trade tensions, which could shift the distribution toward either 3.0 percent or 3.3 percent thresholds as new data arrives.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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