Lara Bird, the Scottish National Party candidate, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% for the 18 June 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election due to the SNP's established local organization, recent 2024 general election victory in the constituency, and intensive ground campaigning by party figures ahead of polling. The seat, created for the last general election and held by Stephen Gethins until his move to Holyrood, features a narrow prior majority over Labour, but short campaign timelines and limited opposition visibility have reinforced expectations of continuity. Other candidates, including those from Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, trail sharply in implied probabilities. Late shifts could still occur through unusually high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen national developments, though the current market pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game assessment of an SNP hold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner
2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner
Lara Bird 98.9%
Heather Doran <1%
Jack Cruickshanks <1%
Tanvir Ahmad <1%
$10,081 ปริมาณ
$10,081 ปริมาณ
Lara Bird
Yes
Heather Doran
No
Bill Reid
No
Jack Cruickshanks
No
Tanvir Ahmad
No
Lara Bird 98.9%
Heather Doran <1%
Jack Cruickshanks <1%
Tanvir Ahmad <1%
$10,081 ปริมาณ
$10,081 ปริมาณ
Lara Bird
Yes
Heather Doran
No
Bill Reid
No
Jack Cruickshanks
No
Tanvir Ahmad
No
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Lara Bird, the Scottish National Party candidate, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% for the 18 June 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election due to the SNP's established local organization, recent 2024 general election victory in the constituency, and intensive ground campaigning by party figures ahead of polling. The seat, created for the last general election and held by Stephen Gethins until his move to Holyrood, features a narrow prior majority over Labour, but short campaign timelines and limited opposition visibility have reinforced expectations of continuity. Other candidates, including those from Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, trail sharply in implied probabilities. Late shifts could still occur through unusually high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen national developments, though the current market pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game assessment of an SNP hold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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