Recent model releases in early September have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by end of October, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing strong #1 leads on multiple benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench. This leaves OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash variants as the primary contenders, differentiated by strengths in agentic coding, cybersecurity features, multimodal reasoning, and pricing efficiency. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities, factors in rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the impact of style control capabilities on real-world usability. Key upcoming catalysts include additional capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem responses through late October.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMeta 33%
Google 26%
Anthropic 20%
OpenAI 19%
$23,093 ปริมาณ
$23,093 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
33%
26%
Anthropic
20%
OpenAI
19%
Z.ai
7%
Alibaba
6%
ByteDance
4%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 33%
Google 26%
Anthropic 20%
OpenAI 19%
$23,093 ปริมาณ
$23,093 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$5,000 ปริมาณ
33%
$6,465 ปริมาณ
26%
Anthropic
$993 ปริมาณ
20%
OpenAI
$2,052 ปริมาณ
19%
Z.ai
$493 ปริมาณ
7%
Alibaba
$517 ปริมาณ
6%
ByteDance
$655 ปริมาณ
4%
SpaceXAI
$498 ปริมาณ
1%
Moonshot
$501 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$483 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$512 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$463 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$553 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$530 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$535 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$512 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$421 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$470 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$464 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$518 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in early September have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by end of October, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing strong #1 leads on multiple benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench. This leaves OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash variants as the primary contenders, differentiated by strengths in agentic coding, cybersecurity features, multimodal reasoning, and pricing efficiency. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities, factors in rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the impact of style control capabilities on real-world usability. Key upcoming catalysts include additional capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem responses through late October.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,093วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in early September have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by end of October, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing strong #1 leads on multiple benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench. This leaves OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash variants as the primary contenders, differentiated by strengths in agentic coding, cybersecurity features, multimodal reasoning, and pricing efficiency. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities, factors in rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the impact of style control capabilities on real-world usability. Key upcoming catalysts include additional capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem responses through late October.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,093วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases in early September have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by end of October, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing strong #1 leads on multiple benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench. This leaves OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash variants as the primary contenders, differentiated by strengths in agentic coding, cybersecurity features, multimodal reasoning, and pricing efficiency. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities, factors in rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the impact of style control capabilities on real-world usability. Key upcoming catalysts include additional capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem responses through late October.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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