Ongoing Houthi attacks and territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control near Perim Island and Mokha, have sustained elevated risks at Bab el-Mandeb, driving rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and keeping daily transits at roughly 26–30 vessels—down sharply from pre-2024 norms near 70. This has lifted war-risk insurance premiums, container freight rates, and voyage costs by $0.9–1 million per trip while pressuring global oil benchmarks such as Brent, which traded near $104 recently. Tanker and select bulk traffic continues at reduced volumes, with IMF PortWatch data showing no zero-transit days amid partial Saudi counteroffensives. Key near-term catalysts include further Yemen ground operations and any shifts in Saudi or coalition posture that could alter throughput.