2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

Updated Apr 2, 2026 11:20 PM ET

2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

00
DAYS
00
HOURS
00
MINUTES
00
SECONDS
Trade$100 -> $194
48 REPUBLICANS52 DEMOCRATS
Trade$100 -> $116
197 REPUBLICANS238 DEMOCRATS
Toss up
Lean D
Likely D
Safe D
No race
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

Referendums

top issue markets
$3M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

67% chance no

-2.5%
Trade
$6.0K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

60% chance yes

+3.5%
Trade
NEW

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

85% chance no

+0.0%
Trade

Biggest races

most pivotal markets
$736K Vol

AK Governor

67% Republican

+1%
Trade
$292K Vol

AK Senate

61% Democrat

+0%
Trade
$162K Vol

TX Senate

56% Republican

+0%
Trade

All races

519 markets
Race
State
Fav
Tier
Showing 25 of 50 markets

Midterms 2026 odds

California Governor Election WinnerEric Swalwell
64%
Tom Steyer
11%
Steve Hilton
9%
Matt Mahan
8%
Katie Porter
3%
Elaine Culotti
3%
Chad Bianco
2%
Antonio Villaraigosa
1%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich
28%
Treg Taylor
16%
Bernadette Wilson
16%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
13%
Nancy Dahlstrom
10%
Click Bishop
5%
Lisa Murkowski
5%
Matt Claman
4%
David Bronson
4%
Bruce Walden
4%
Edna DeVries
3%
Mary Peltola
3%
Shelley Hughes
2%
Hank Kroll
2%
Adam Crum
1%
Matt Heilala
1%
James Parkin
1%
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
39%
Michigan Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
64%
Republican
23%
Texas Senate Election WinnerRepublican
57%
Democrat
44%
KY-04 Republican Primary WinnerThomas Massie
67%
Ed Gallrein
33%
NY-12 Democratic Primary WinnerMicah Lasher
45%
Alex Bores
29%
Jack Schlossberg
19%
George Conway
3%
Erik Bottcher
2%
Cameron Kasky
1%
Lina Khan
1%
Julie Menin
1%
Liz Krueger
1%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican
75%
Democrat
4%
NY-07 Democratic Primary WinnerClaire Valdez
75%
Antonio Reynoso
24%
Lincoln Restler
1%
Tiffany Cabán
1%
Iowa Senate Election WinnerRepublican
63%
Democrat
38%
Ohio Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
56%
Republican
43%
TX-33 Democratic Primary WinnerColin Allred
70%
Julie Johnson
28%
NY-17 Democratic Primary WinnerCait Conley
56%
Beth Davidson
18%
Peter Chatzky
14%
Effie Phillips-Staley
13%
John Cappello
2%
Mike Sacks
1%
Jessica Reinmann
1%
John Sullivan
1%
Maine Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
77%
Republican
23%
North Carolina Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
87%
Republican
9%
Montana Senate Election WinnerRepublican
83%
Democrat
9%
Arizona Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
76%
Republican
21%
TX-38 Republican Primary WinnerJon Bonck
94%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Shelly deZevallos
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerShri Thanedar
57%
Donavan McKinney
39%
Nazmul Hassan
3%
Anthony Carbonaro
2%
Shelby Campbell
1%
Georgia Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
83%
Republican
17%
Nevada Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
60%
Republican
41%
UT-01 Democratic Primary WinnerBen McAdams
51%
Nate Blouin
47%
Erin Mendenhall
1%
Brian King
1%
Kathleen Riebe
1%
Jenny Wilson
1%
Luz Escamilla
1%
Florida Senate Election WinnerRepublican
87%
Democrat
14%
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerRepublican
86%
Democrat
14%
PA-03 Democratic Primary WinnerSharif Street
39%
Chris Rabb
33%
Ala Stanford
27%
Morgan Cephas
3%
David Oxman
1%
Robin Toldens
1%
KY-06 Republican Primary WinnerRalph Alvarado
51%
Adam Perez Arquette
23%
Ryan Dotson
12%
Greg Plucinski
6%
MN-05 Democratic Primary WinnerIlhan Omar
86%
Latonya Reeves
14%
Kansas Senate Election WinnerRepublican
86%
Democrat
12%
Minnesota Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
92%
Republican
9%
Oklahoma Governor Election WinnerRepublican
93%
Democrat
7%
Oregon Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
88%
Republican
13%
Mississippi Senate Election WinnerRepublican
90%
Democrat
9%
New Mexico Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
96%
Republican
2%
South Dakota Governor Election WinnerRepublican
94%
Democrat
4%
Florida Governor Election WinnerRepublican
74%
Democrat
20%
CO-08 Democratic Primary WinnerManny Rutinel
74%
Shannon Bird
24%
Yadira Caraveo
2%
John Szemler
1%
Amie Baca-Oehlert
1%
Dave Young
1%
NH-01 Democratic Primary WinnerStefany Shaheen
62%
Maura Sullivan
28%
Carleigh Beriont
10%
Heath Howard
3%
NY-13 Democratic Primary WinnerAdriano Espaillat
64%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
28%
Oscar Romero
4%
James Felton Keith
3%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
1%
Matt Miller
1%
PA-07 Democratic Primary WinnerBob Brooks
72%
Ryan Crosswell
20%
Lamont McClure
7%
Carol Obando-Derstine
2%
Lewis Shupe
1%
IN-07 Democratic Primary WinnerAndré Carson
96%
George Hornedo
3%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
Destiny Scott Wells
1%
IA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerChristina Bohannan
96%
Taylor Wettach
3%
Travis Terrell
1%
OH-09 Republican Primary WinnerDerek Merrin
56%
Josh Williams
16%
Madison Sheahan
14%
Alea Nadeem
8%
Jacob Frost
1%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Wayne Kinsel
1%
Idaho Governor Election WinnerRepublican
94%
Democrat
5%
NE-02 Democratic Primary WinnerJohn Cavanaugh
84%
Denise Powell
11%
Mark Johnston
4%
Evangelos Argyrakis
3%
NY-10 Democratic Primary WinnerBrad Lander
81%
Dan Goldman
14%
Yuh-Line Niou
4%
Cameron Kasky
2%
Alexa Avilés
1%
Kansas Governor Election WinnerRepublican
61%
Democrat
28%
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWesley Bell
65%
Cori Bush
30%
ME-02 Republican Primary WinnerPaul LePage
94%
James Clark
6%
Kentucky Senate Election WinnerRepublican
93%
Democrat
7%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes
34%

About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress alongside a broad range of state and local offices. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, 36 gubernatorial positions across U.S. states, and numerous state legislative, executive, and local races will appear on ballots nationwide. These are the first national midterms to take place during a non-consecutive presidential second term since 1894, as President Donald Trump returns to office following the Republi...

FAQ