Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$431,181 Объем
31 июл. 2026 г.
1 июля
Да
2 июля
Да
3 июля
Да
4 июля
Да
5 июля
Да
6 июля
Да
7 июля
Нет
8 июля
Да
9 июля
Нет
10 июля
Нет
11 июля
Да
12 июля
Да
13 июля
Да
14 июля
Да
15 июля
Да
16 июля
Нет
17 июля
Да
18 июля
Да
19 июля
Да
20 июля
Нет
21 июля
Да
22 июля
Да
23 июля
Да
24 июля
Да
25 июля
Нет
26 июля
Да
27 июля
Да
28 июля
Да
29 июля
Да
30 июля
Нет
31 июля
Да
$431,181 Объем
1 июля
$21,546 Объем
Да
2 июля
$13,853 Объем
Да
3 июля
$18,606 Объем
Да
4 июля
$15,680 Объем
Да
5 июля
$15,470 Объем
Да
6 июля
$17,992 Объем
Да
7 июля
$23,676 Объем
Нет
8 июля
$9,111 Объем
Да
9 июля
$11,506 Объем
Нет
10 июля
$26,575 Объем
Нет
11 июля
$25,943 Объем
Да
12 июля
$29,088 Объем
Да
13 июля
$8,601 Объем
Да
14 июля
$8,275 Объем
Да
15 июля
$15,534 Объем
Да
16 июля
$20,979 Объем
Нет
17 июля
$8,095 Объем
Да
18 июля
$21,930 Объем
Да
19 июля
$11,898 Объем
Да
20 июля
$11,844 Объем
Нет
21 июля
$10,787 Объем
Да
22 июля
$7,662 Объем
Да
23 июля
$12,018 Объем
Да
24 июля
$11,285 Объем
Да
25 июля
$5,278 Объем
Нет
26 июля
$4,756 Объем
Да
27 июля
$7,733 Объем
Да
28 июля
$8,004 Объем
Да
29 июля
$4,301 Объем
Да
30 июля
$12,336 Объем
Нет
31 июля
$10,820 Объем
Да
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ET
Объем
$431,181Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$431,181Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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