As measured by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Q1 of 2022 saw a GDP shrinkage of 1.5%. A recession is often defined as “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth". As such, if the BEA measures a shrinkage of the US's GDP in Q2, the United States will be in a recession.

If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q2 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP release for Q2 of 2022. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

The BEA's GDP release for Q2 of 2022 is scheduled for July 28, 2022.

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in an advance estimate may be used to resolve this market, and this market will resolve upon the release of such an advance estimate. Data relevant to the resolution of this market may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.