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Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?

Market icon

Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?

A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic. Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Объем
$261,873
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2022
Открытие рынка
Oct 4, 2022, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic. Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic. Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Объем
$261,873
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2022
Открытие рынка
Oct 4, 2022, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic. Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 0% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 0¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $261.9K с момента запуска рынка Oct 5, 2022. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?» составляет 0% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.