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Геополитика·Украина

Сможет ли Россия захватить Гуляйполе к 31 декабря?

Market icon
Геополитика·Украина

Сможет ли Россия захватить Гуляйполе к 31 декабря?

$1,221,081 Объем

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$1,221,081 Объем

Polymarket

31 декабря

$957,605 Объем

Да

15 января

$120,076 Объем

Да

31 января

$143,400 Объем

Да

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png

Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png

Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Объем
$1,221,081
Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Oct 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сможет ли Россия захватить Гуляйполе к 31 декабря?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 3 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря» с 100%, за ним следует «15 января» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

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Текущий фаворит для «Сможет ли Россия захватить Гуляйполе к 31 декабря?» — «31 декабря» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «15 января» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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