Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations and infiltration missions in the Kupyansk direction, including recent claims of capturing nearby Kivsharivka on March 29, but Institute for the Study of War assessments as of March 28 confirm no territorial advances, with Ukrainian defenders maintaining control of the city center and key areas amid ongoing clearing operations. Over the past month, Ukrainian counterattacks have reduced Russian positions to isolated pockets near the hospital complex, as acknowledged by pro-Russian bloggers like Rybar, reversing earlier claims of full control. Trader consensus reflects significant barriers to full capture per ISW maps, including stout Ukrainian defenses along the Oskil River and logistical challenges, with no major breakthroughs in the last 30 days; upcoming frontline escalations or reinforcements could shift dynamics before resolution deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,229,893 Объем
31 марта
<1%
30 июня
9%
$1,229,893 Объем
31 марта
<1%
30 июня
9%
Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.
Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Открытие рынка: Nov 4, 2025, 10:49 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.
Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Russian forces have conducted persistent offensive operations and infiltration missions in the Kupyansk direction, including recent claims of capturing nearby Kivsharivka on March 29, but Institute for the Study of War assessments as of March 28 confirm no territorial advances, with Ukrainian defenders maintaining control of the city center and key areas amid ongoing clearing operations. Over the past month, Ukrainian counterattacks have reduced Russian positions to isolated pockets near the hospital complex, as acknowledged by pro-Russian bloggers like Rybar, reversing earlier claims of full control. Trader consensus reflects significant barriers to full capture per ISW maps, including stout Ukrainian defenses along the Oskil River and logistical challenges, with no major breakthroughs in the last 30 days; upcoming frontline escalations or reinforcements could shift dynamics before resolution deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы