Market icon

Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?

Market icon

Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?

Да

<1% chance
Polymarket

$460,437 Объем

Да

<1% chance
Polymarket

$460,437 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period.

A qualifying announcement must:

The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement.

The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made.

The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.
Объем
$460,437
Дата окончания
Jan 7, 2026
Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 1:55 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period. A qualifying announcement must: The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement. The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made. The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period.

A qualifying announcement must:

The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement.

The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made.

The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.
Объем
$460,437
Дата окончания
Jan 7, 2026
Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 1:55 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period. A qualifying announcement must: The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement. The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made. The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Объявит ли Россия рождественское перемирие?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?" has generated $460.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 8, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?" is "Объявит ли Россия рождественское перемирие?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Россия объявит рождественское перемирие?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.