Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of Gao city despite a major April 2026 offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists allied with the JNIM jihadist group. That coordinated campaign captured Kidal and parts of the Gao region but left Malian and Russian positions intact within Gao itself, prompting negotiations for limited withdrawals elsewhere. Subsequent FLA and JNIM attacks on Gao-area convoys and positions in July 2026 were repelled, with the army reporting the situation under control and inflicting casualties on the attackers. These outcomes, combined with the junta’s ongoing military posture and absence of decisive rebel breakthroughs since spring, underpin the 78.5% implied probability that full rebel capture will not occur by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли повстанцы Гао к 31 декабря?
Захватят ли повстанцы Гао к 31 декабря?
Да
21% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
21% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of Gao city despite a major April 2026 offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists allied with the JNIM jihadist group. That coordinated campaign captured Kidal and parts of the Gao region but left Malian and Russian positions intact within Gao itself, prompting negotiations for limited withdrawals elsewhere. Subsequent FLA and JNIM attacks on Gao-area convoys and positions in July 2026 were repelled, with the army reporting the situation under control and inflicting casualties on the attackers. These outcomes, combined with the junta’s ongoing military posture and absence of decisive rebel breakthroughs since spring, underpin the 78.5% implied probability that full rebel capture will not occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Открытие рынка: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$6,019Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of Gao city despite a major April 2026 offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists allied with the JNIM jihadist group. That coordinated campaign captured Kidal and parts of the Gao region but left Malian and Russian positions intact within Gao itself, prompting negotiations for limited withdrawals elsewhere. Subsequent FLA and JNIM attacks on Gao-area convoys and positions in July 2026 were repelled, with the army reporting the situation under control and inflicting casualties on the attackers. These outcomes, combined with the junta’s ongoing military posture and absence of decisive rebel breakthroughs since spring, underpin the 78.5% implied probability that full rebel capture will not occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Объем
$6,019Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps personnel, have retained control of Gao city despite a major April 2026 offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists allied with the JNIM jihadist group. That coordinated campaign captured Kidal and parts of the Gao region but left Malian and Russian positions intact within Gao itself, prompting negotiations for limited withdrawals elsewhere. Subsequent FLA and JNIM attacks on Gao-area convoys and positions in July 2026 were repelled, with the army reporting the situation under control and inflicting casualties on the attackers. These outcomes, combined with the junta’s ongoing military posture and absence of decisive rebel breakthroughs since spring, underpin the 78.5% implied probability that full rebel capture will not occur by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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