OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 family, including the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4 with native computer-use capabilities and the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant refinements, reflects ongoing optimization of reasoning, coding, and agentic features rather than a full next-generation frontier model like GPT-6. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to drive incremental updates focused on enterprise workflows and benchmarks, while historical patterns show major leaps occurring roughly every 12–18 months after foundational releases such as GPT-5 in August 2025. Traders should monitor official OpenAI announcements, developer conferences, and any signals around new training runs or capability thresholds that could accelerate or delay a distinct frontier release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
$24,523 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 30
94%
September 30
98%
$24,523 Объем
June 30
$7,745 Объем
94%
September 30
$11,400 Объем
98%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 family, including the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4 with native computer-use capabilities and the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant refinements, reflects ongoing optimization of reasoning, coding, and agentic features rather than a full next-generation frontier model like GPT-6. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to drive incremental updates focused on enterprise workflows and benchmarks, while historical patterns show major leaps occurring roughly every 12–18 months after foundational releases such as GPT-5 in August 2025. Traders should monitor official OpenAI announcements, developer conferences, and any signals around new training runs or capability thresholds that could accelerate or delay a distinct frontier release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Объем
$24,523Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 family, including the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4 with native computer-use capabilities and the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant refinements, reflects ongoing optimization of reasoning, coding, and agentic features rather than a full next-generation frontier model like GPT-6. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to drive incremental updates focused on enterprise workflows and benchmarks, while historical patterns show major leaps occurring roughly every 12–18 months after foundational releases such as GPT-5 in August 2025. Traders should monitor official OpenAI announcements, developer conferences, and any signals around new training runs or capability thresholds that could accelerate or delay a distinct frontier release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$24,523Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 family, including the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4 with native computer-use capabilities and the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant refinements, reflects ongoing optimization of reasoning, coding, and agentic features rather than a full next-generation frontier model like GPT-6. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to drive incremental updates focused on enterprise workflows and benchmarks, while historical patterns show major leaps occurring roughly every 12–18 months after foundational releases such as GPT-5 in August 2025. Traders should monitor official OpenAI announcements, developer conferences, and any signals around new training runs or capability thresholds that could accelerate or delay a distinct frontier release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы