Iran’s ongoing military campaign against U.S. interests in the Gulf, including repeated missile and drone strikes on Kuwait since February 2026, forms the central driver of trader views on further targeting. The most recent confirmed attacks occurred October 9–10, when Iranian forces struck Kuwait International Airport and other infrastructure, killing at least one person and injuring dozens, prompting Kuwaiti condemnations and U.S. retaliatory action. Tehran frames these operations as responses to American strikes and as legitimate pressure on bases in the region, while Kuwait maintains strict neutrality and has detained alleged IRGC operatives near its borders. Escalation risks remain tied to any intensification of U.S.-Iran exchanges or shifts in the broader Israel-Hezbollah front, with potential diplomatic de-escalation or expanded sanctions as key variables that could alter the pace of Iranian operations through the remainder of the year.