Iran’s pattern of direct and proxy strikes on Gulf Arab states hosting U.S. forces has shaped trader views on further targeting by the specified deadline. Since February 2026, Tehran launched thousands of missiles and drones at facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Jordan, often citing U.S. military presence or retaliatory needs during the U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent August warnings from Iranian officials explicitly threatened energy infrastructure, oil fields, and ports if Washington escalates strikes, while Houthis and Iraqi militias conducted coordinated attacks on Saudi targets and shipping lanes. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, U.S. sanctions, and mediation efforts introduce uncertainty, though persistent IRGC activity and regional proxy coordination sustain expectations of additional incidents before any resolution window closes.