The modest 4% rebound to $59.6 billion in 2025 global art sales, per the Art Basel and UBS report, leaves the market well below its 2022 peak and fuels the near-even odds on reaching $65 billion in 2026. Renewed high-end auction strength, with public sales rising 9% to $20.7 billion on fresh single-owner collections, has lifted sentiment, yet dealer transactions grew only 2% amid uneven regional results and lingering tariff and inflation pressures. Dealer surveys show 43% expecting improvement and 38% stability heading into the year, reflecting cautious optimism rather than breakout momentum. Key swing factors include the trajectory of major fall auctions, Art Basel fair performance, and any acceleration in top-tier private sales that could push totals decisively higher or confirm a slower recalibration.