**Recent opinion polls position the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the clear frontrunner for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election but short of the vote share needed for an absolute majority.** Surveys from Infratest dimap (April–May 2026) and INSA (May 2026) show AfD support at 41–42%, ahead of the CDU at 24–26% and Die Linke at 12–13%, with the SPD, Greens, FDP, and BSW near or below the 5% threshold. In an 83-seat chamber under Germany’s proportional representation system, this level of support is projected to deliver the largest bloc but typically falls short of the roughly 50% required for a majority, given ongoing fragmentation and the electoral threshold. **The implied 55.5% probability on “No” reflects trader assessment of these stable polling trends and structural barriers rather than any single catalyst.** AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund’s selection and the party’s platform have not produced measurable gains beyond the low-40s range since January 2026. Incumbent CDU-led coalition dynamics and limited cooperation prospects with other parties further constrain scenarios for an outright majority. While late swings remain possible in the three months before the vote, current data indicate the outcome hinges on whether AfD support can climb substantially above recent levels.