Recent polling in the final weeks before Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows AfD support stabilizing between 35 and 37 percent, positioning the party as the clear frontrunner but far below the roughly 50 percent vote share required for an absolute majority of seats. The SPD has narrowed the gap to three points in the latest surveys while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW divide the remaining electorate, preventing any single force from approaching a governing majority alone. With the vote less than three weeks away and consistent results across multiple institutes, traders assign near-certain odds against an AfD absolute majority. Late swings in turnout or last-minute events could theoretically alter seat projections, though current data and historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in the final weeks before Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows AfD support stabilizing between 35 and 37 percent, positioning the party as the clear frontrunner but far below the roughly 50 percent vote share required for an absolute majority of seats. The SPD has narrowed the gap to three points in the latest surveys while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW divide the remaining electorate, preventing any single force from approaching a governing majority alone. With the vote less than three weeks away and consistent results across multiple institutes, traders assign near-certain odds against an AfD absolute majority. Late swings in turnout or last-minute events could theoretically alter seat projections, though current data and historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Объем
$2,199Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in the final weeks before Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows AfD support stabilizing between 35 and 37 percent, positioning the party as the clear frontrunner but far below the roughly 50 percent vote share required for an absolute majority of seats. The SPD has narrowed the gap to three points in the latest surveys while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW divide the remaining electorate, preventing any single force from approaching a governing majority alone. With the vote less than three weeks away and consistent results across multiple institutes, traders assign near-certain odds against an AfD absolute majority. Late swings in turnout or last-minute events could theoretically alter seat projections, though current data and historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Объем
$2,199Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent polling in the final weeks before Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows AfD support stabilizing between 35 and 37 percent, positioning the party as the clear frontrunner but far below the roughly 50 percent vote share required for an absolute majority of seats. The SPD has narrowed the gap to three points in the latest surveys while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW divide the remaining electorate, preventing any single force from approaching a governing majority alone. With the vote less than three weeks away and consistent results across multiple institutes, traders assign near-certain odds against an AfD absolute majority. Late swings in turnout or last-minute events could theoretically alter seat projections, though current data and historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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