Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook stating no tropical cyclone development expected in the next seven days amid high vertical wind shear and insufficient sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Historical data underscores this, with only a handful of pre-season hurricanes since 1851—none recently—and the official season starting June 1 after NHC begins regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15. While warm Atlantic waters could fuel an outlier disturbance, sustained 74 mph winds for hurricane status remain unlikely without anomalous low shear; watch for updated NOAA forecasts in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУраган сформируется к 31 мая?
Ураган сформируется к 31 мая?
Да
$36,151 Объем
$36,151 Объем
Да
$36,151 Объем
$36,151 Объем
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Открытие рынка: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook stating no tropical cyclone development expected in the next seven days amid high vertical wind shear and insufficient sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Historical data underscores this, with only a handful of pre-season hurricanes since 1851—none recently—and the official season starting June 1 after NHC begins regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15. While warm Atlantic waters could fuel an outlier disturbance, sustained 74 mph winds for hurricane status remain unlikely without anomalous low shear; watch for updated NOAA forecasts in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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