Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 52% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend, driven by robust early presales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release and holiday timing that historically boosts blockbusters. Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with a record $360 million in late July, leaving Toy Story 5’s $160 million as the current benchmark for second place. Doomsday’s projected $260–300 million range, fueled by an expansive MCU ensemble and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, positions it to surpass that mark and most other 2026 releases like The Odyssey or upcoming titles. Dune: Messiah shares the date but trails in expectations, while lower odds for remaining films reflect limited tracking data and seasonal competition. Final December tracking and actuals will determine the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой фильм имеет второй по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
Какой фильм имеет второй по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
Avengers: Doomsday 52%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 47%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$108,490 Объем
$108,490 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Avengers: Doomsday
52%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
47%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 52%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 47%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$108,490 Объем
$108,490 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Avengers: Doomsday
$43,654 Объем
52%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$54,503 Объем
47%
Dune: Messiah
$5,892 Объем
<1%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Объем
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 52% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend, driven by robust early presales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release and holiday timing that historically boosts blockbusters. Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with a record $360 million in late July, leaving Toy Story 5’s $160 million as the current benchmark for second place. Doomsday’s projected $260–300 million range, fueled by an expansive MCU ensemble and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, positions it to surpass that mark and most other 2026 releases like The Odyssey or upcoming titles. Dune: Messiah shares the date but trails in expectations, while lower odds for remaining films reflect limited tracking data and seasonal competition. Final December tracking and actuals will determine the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Объем
$108,490Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 52% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend, driven by robust early presales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release and holiday timing that historically boosts blockbusters. Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with a record $360 million in late July, leaving Toy Story 5’s $160 million as the current benchmark for second place. Doomsday’s projected $260–300 million range, fueled by an expansive MCU ensemble and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, positions it to surpass that mark and most other 2026 releases like The Odyssey or upcoming titles. Dune: Messiah shares the date but trails in expectations, while lower odds for remaining films reflect limited tracking data and seasonal competition. Final December tracking and actuals will determine the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$108,490Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 52% implied probability for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend, driven by robust early presales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release and holiday timing that historically boosts blockbusters. Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with a record $360 million in late July, leaving Toy Story 5’s $160 million as the current benchmark for second place. Doomsday’s projected $260–300 million range, fueled by an expansive MCU ensemble and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, positions it to surpass that mark and most other 2026 releases like The Odyssey or upcoming titles. Dune: Messiah shares the date but trails in expectations, while lower odds for remaining films reflect limited tracking data and seasonal competition. Final December tracking and actuals will determine the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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