The 2026 midterm elections, held November 3, set the resolution trigger for this market by comparing each listed Democrat’s certified statewide vote share against Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential results in the same state. Trader pricing currently places the highest probability on Tina Kotek in Oregon’s gubernatorial race and Troy Jackson in Maine’s Senate contest, reflecting recent state-level polling averages, incumbency dynamics, and historical performance baselines relative to the 2024 presidential electorate. Other candidates, including those in Michigan, New York, and Minnesota, trade at lower levels amid tighter generic ballot trends and varying campaign momentum. The outcome hinges on final vote certification and any last-minute shifts in turnout or late-deciding voters across these battleground states.