Anthropic holds an 80.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked model on the style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude's repeated demonstration of stable, high performance across recent style-controlled evaluations. Fresh releases including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 have reinforced this positioning through strong results on benchmarks emphasizing controlled output style alongside capability. Google's Gemini 3.5 updates from May provide the main alternative at 12.5%, yet have not displaced Claude from the relevant tier. With resolution days away, traders see limited scope for last-minute shifts from Meta, OpenAI, or others absent unexpected benchmark surges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 81%
Google 13%
Meta 2.0%
OpenAI 1.8%
$50,643 Объем
$50,643 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
81%
13%
Meta
2%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 81%
Google 13%
Meta 2.0%
OpenAI 1.8%
$50,643 Объем
$50,643 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$19,071 Объем
81%
$6,283 Объем
13%
Meta
$3,936 Объем
2%
OpenAI
$4,287 Объем
2%
xAI
$2,467 Объем
1%
Amazon
$2,607 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$1,006 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$1,384 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$1,208 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$1,094 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$893 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,894 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$1,560 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$1,291 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$662 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an 80.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked model on the style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude's repeated demonstration of stable, high performance across recent style-controlled evaluations. Fresh releases including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 have reinforced this positioning through strong results on benchmarks emphasizing controlled output style alongside capability. Google's Gemini 3.5 updates from May provide the main alternative at 12.5%, yet have not displaced Claude from the relevant tier. With resolution days away, traders see limited scope for last-minute shifts from Meta, OpenAI, or others absent unexpected benchmark surges.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Объем
$50,643Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an 80.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked model on the style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude's repeated demonstration of stable, high performance across recent style-controlled evaluations. Fresh releases including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 have reinforced this positioning through strong results on benchmarks emphasizing controlled output style alongside capability. Google's Gemini 3.5 updates from May provide the main alternative at 12.5%, yet have not displaced Claude from the relevant tier. With resolution days away, traders see limited scope for last-minute shifts from Meta, OpenAI, or others absent unexpected benchmark surges.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$50,643Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 80.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked model on the style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude's repeated demonstration of stable, high performance across recent style-controlled evaluations. Fresh releases including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 have reinforced this positioning through strong results on benchmarks emphasizing controlled output style alongside capability. Google's Gemini 3.5 updates from May provide the main alternative at 12.5%, yet have not displaced Claude from the relevant tier. With resolution days away, traders see limited scope for last-minute shifts from Meta, OpenAI, or others absent unexpected benchmark surges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы