Anthropic currently leads multiple June 2026 leaderboards with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants topping composite quality, reasoning (GPQA), and agentic coding (SWE-Bench) benchmarks, driven by recent releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro follow closely in intelligence indices and multimodal tasks, narrowing historical gaps across labs. Trader sentiment reflects intense release cycles, with performance converging among frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, shifting focus to cost, reliability, and domain-specific strengths. Key catalysts through year-end include expected GPT-6 iterations, expanded agent capabilities, and new benchmark results that could shift #1 rankings before December 31 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$37,655 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
55%
OpenAI
33%
Meta
15%
xAI
14%
ByteDance
10%
DeepSeek
10%
Amazon
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
9%
Baidu
9%
Mistral
7%
Meituan
7%
$37,655 Объем
$8,621 Объем
55%
OpenAI
$8,100 Объем
33%
Meta
$2,429 Объем
15%
xAI
$4,963 Объем
14%
ByteDance
$2,182 Объем
10%
DeepSeek
$1,178 Объем
10%
Amazon
$1,313 Объем
10%
Microsoft
$2,264 Объем
10%
Alibaba
$363 Объем
9%
Moonshot
$574 Объем
9%
Z.ai
$956 Объем
9%
Baidu
$500 Объем
9%
Mistral
$2,612 Объем
7%
Meituan
$1,601 Объем
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads multiple June 2026 leaderboards with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants topping composite quality, reasoning (GPQA), and agentic coding (SWE-Bench) benchmarks, driven by recent releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro follow closely in intelligence indices and multimodal tasks, narrowing historical gaps across labs. Trader sentiment reflects intense release cycles, with performance converging among frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, shifting focus to cost, reliability, and domain-specific strengths. Key catalysts through year-end include expected GPT-6 iterations, expanded agent capabilities, and new benchmark results that could shift #1 rankings before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Объем
$37,655Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads multiple June 2026 leaderboards with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants topping composite quality, reasoning (GPQA), and agentic coding (SWE-Bench) benchmarks, driven by recent releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro follow closely in intelligence indices and multimodal tasks, narrowing historical gaps across labs. Trader sentiment reflects intense release cycles, with performance converging among frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, shifting focus to cost, reliability, and domain-specific strengths. Key catalysts through year-end include expected GPT-6 iterations, expanded agent capabilities, and new benchmark results that could shift #1 rankings before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$37,655Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads multiple June 2026 leaderboards with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants topping composite quality, reasoning (GPQA), and agentic coding (SWE-Bench) benchmarks, driven by recent releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro follow closely in intelligence indices and multimodal tasks, narrowing historical gaps across labs. Trader sentiment reflects intense release cycles, with performance converging among frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, shifting focus to cost, reliability, and domain-specific strengths. Key catalysts through year-end include expected GPT-6 iterations, expanded agent capabilities, and new benchmark results that could shift #1 rankings before December 31 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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