The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European grand coalition following PSD’s April withdrawal and the May 5 no-confidence vote with AUR has left parliament fragmented and a caretaker government in place, prompting President Nicușor Dan to begin party consultations. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to inclusive combinations such as PSD+PNL+USR+UDMR at 48 percent and single-party or narrower PSD-led options near 46 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal reforms, EU funds access, and minority support can sustain a stable majority. PSD’s size gives it leverage, yet historical patterns of rotating or broad coalitions and AUR’s exclusion from mainstream talks keep multiple scenarios competitive without a clear frontrunner.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPSD 50%
PSD + PNL + USR 46.4%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + AUR 8.0%
$10,912 Объем
$10,912 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
PSD
50%
PSD + PNL + USR
46%
PNL + USR + UDMR
21%
PSD + PNL + AUR
8%
PSD + USR + UDMR
16%
USR
7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
5%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
4%
AUR
2%
UDMR
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
<1%
USR + UDMR
7%
PNL + AUR
6%
PNL
42%
PSD + PNL
45%
PSD + UDMR
47%
PNL + USR
47%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
48%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
32%
Other
38%
PSD + USR
47%
PSD + AUR
47%
PNL + UDMR
36%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
38%
PSD 50%
PSD + PNL + USR 46.4%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + AUR 8.0%
$10,912 Объем
$10,912 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
PSD
$56 Объем
50%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Объем
46%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$304 Объем
21%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$87 Объем
8%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$440 Объем
16%
USR
$1,382 Объем
7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$77 Объем
5%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$374 Объем
4%
AUR
$484 Объем
2%
UDMR
$675 Объем
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
$302 Объем
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$351 Объем
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
$303 Объем
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$366 Объем
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$371 Объем
1%
USR + AUR
$649 Объем
1%
UDMR + AUR
$414 Объем
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$475 Объем
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$558 Объем
<1%
USR + UDMR
$347 Объем
7%
PNL + AUR
$419 Объем
6%
PNL
$152 Объем
42%
PSD + PNL
$118 Объем
45%
PSD + UDMR
$61 Объем
47%
PNL + USR
$145 Объем
47%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Объем
48%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$324 Объем
32%
Other
$463 Объем
38%
PSD + USR
$461 Объем
47%
PSD + AUR
$152 Объем
47%
PNL + UDMR
$163 Объем
36%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$381 Объем
38%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European grand coalition following PSD’s April withdrawal and the May 5 no-confidence vote with AUR has left parliament fragmented and a caretaker government in place, prompting President Nicușor Dan to begin party consultations. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to inclusive combinations such as PSD+PNL+USR+UDMR at 48 percent and single-party or narrower PSD-led options near 46 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal reforms, EU funds access, and minority support can sustain a stable majority. PSD’s size gives it leverage, yet historical patterns of rotating or broad coalitions and AUR’s exclusion from mainstream talks keep multiple scenarios competitive without a clear frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Объем
$10,912Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European grand coalition following PSD’s April withdrawal and the May 5 no-confidence vote with AUR has left parliament fragmented and a caretaker government in place, prompting President Nicușor Dan to begin party consultations. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to inclusive combinations such as PSD+PNL+USR+UDMR at 48 percent and single-party or narrower PSD-led options near 46 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal reforms, EU funds access, and minority support can sustain a stable majority. PSD’s size gives it leverage, yet historical patterns of rotating or broad coalitions and AUR’s exclusion from mainstream talks keep multiple scenarios competitive without a clear frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Объем
$10,912Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European grand coalition following PSD’s April withdrawal and the May 5 no-confidence vote with AUR has left parliament fragmented and a caretaker government in place, prompting President Nicușor Dan to begin party consultations. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to inclusive combinations such as PSD+PNL+USR+UDMR at 48 percent and single-party or narrower PSD-led options near 46 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal reforms, EU funds access, and minority support can sustain a stable majority. PSD’s size gives it leverage, yet historical patterns of rotating or broad coalitions and AUR’s exclusion from mainstream talks keep multiple scenarios competitive without a clear frontrunner.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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