Labour backbench unrest over winter fuel payment cuts to pensioners is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus on Keir Starmer's phrasing at the next Prime Minister's Questions on October 16. With 49 Labour MPs defying the whip last week in a welfare bill revolt—the largest under Starmer—Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is poised to hammer the policy, forcing Starmer to defend fiscal restraint amid accusations of breaking manifesto pledges. Traders price in his track record of measured rebuttals, but uncertainty lingers over concessions to unify the party; odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets on exact wording during the 12pm House of Commons session, with no confirmed script released.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$33,116 Объем
Mr Speaker 20+ times
86%
Mr Speaker 10+ times
98%
Iran 3+ times
87%
Ireland
30%
Scotland
42%
Police
56%
Abuse
35%
Reform
82%
Tory
54%
Epstein
24%
Trump
41%
$33,116 Объем
Mr Speaker 20+ times
86%
Mr Speaker 10+ times
98%
Iran 3+ times
87%
Ireland
30%
Scotland
42%
Police
56%
Abuse
35%
Reform
82%
Tory
54%
Epstein
24%
Trump
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Labour backbench unrest over winter fuel payment cuts to pensioners is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus on Keir Starmer's phrasing at the next Prime Minister's Questions on October 16. With 49 Labour MPs defying the whip last week in a welfare bill revolt—the largest under Starmer—Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is poised to hammer the policy, forcing Starmer to defend fiscal restraint amid accusations of breaking manifesto pledges. Traders price in his track record of measured rebuttals, but uncertainty lingers over concessions to unify the party; odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets on exact wording during the 12pm House of Commons session, with no confirmed script released.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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