Hurricane Nolo reached a confirmed peak of 155 mph sustained winds, placing it firmly in Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale according to Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories. Rapid intensification occurred over warm sea-surface temperatures with low vertical wind shear in late September, allowing the storm to organize a well-defined eye and reach 135 kt before an eyewall replacement cycle and increasing shear halted further strengthening. Official observations, including reconnaissance data, never crossed the 157 mph Category 5 threshold, aligning with model consensus that capped intensity below super-typhoon levels. The 98.6% market-implied probability for Category 4 reflects this verified peak; only an unexpected upward revision in advisory winds or sustained conditions enabling additional intensification could have shifted the outcome toward Category 5.