With the 2026 VMAs just days away on September 27, trader sentiment for Best Choreography reflects a tight contest among six nominees, where Harry Styles’ “Dance No More” (24% implied probability) edges Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl” (21%) on the strength of its high-energy, synchronized gym-to-disco routines choreographed by Ryan Heffington and strong critical buzz around the track’s joyful, communal vibe. Katseye’s “Pinky Up” (15%) benefits from the group’s signature precision and viral synchronization, while Gener8ion’s “Storm” (12.5%) draws on Damien Jalet’s acclaimed contemporary work. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” (8%) and Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” (6%) trail despite star power and established choreographers, as voters historically reward standout innovation over name recognition in this category. Momentum could shift with last-minute performances or social metrics before the ceremony.