Utah's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 and delivered a 32-point margin for the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, establishing a durable partisan advantage that shapes trader positioning. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the nomination with broad delegate support and faces Democrat Jonny Larsen in November 2026, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Redistricting adjustments and the retirement of the prior incumbent have not altered the underlying electoral math, leaving limited openings for Democratic gains. The 90.5% Republican outcome price aligns with this structural edge, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or an unexpected national shift could still affect the result before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUT-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,038 Объем
$15,038 Объем
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
9%
$15,038 Объем
$15,038 Объем
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
9%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 and delivered a 32-point margin for the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, establishing a durable partisan advantage that shapes trader positioning. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the nomination with broad delegate support and faces Democrat Jonny Larsen in November 2026, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Redistricting adjustments and the retirement of the prior incumbent have not altered the underlying electoral math, leaving limited openings for Democratic gains. The 90.5% Republican outcome price aligns with this structural edge, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or an unexpected national shift could still affect the result before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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