**Ongoing US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, including October 8 designations targeting Iran’s remaining shadow fleet and oil export networks, continue to constrain petroleum revenues and sustain pressure on the rial.** Recent indirect talks and reported interim understandings have produced temporary sanctions waivers allowing limited oil sales and Strait of Hormuz access, yet core restrictions on the petroleum sector remain in place. High inflation, depleted accessible reserves, and reduced export capacity keep the free-market rate sensitive to any shift in enforcement or diplomatic progress. With the leading bins (2.5–3.0M and 3.0–3.5M) nearly tied, traders see roughly balanced odds that sanctions relief will stabilize the currency versus sustained isolation driving further depreciation by year-end. Key near-term catalysts include oil export volumes, additional designations, and clarity on the scope and duration of any waivers.