**Ongoing geopolitical tensions, intensified US sanctions, and disruptions to Iran's oil exports and foreign currency inflows have driven sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial on open markets.** By late August 2026, the street rate reached approximately 2.1 million rials per USD amid renewed US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on August 30, a naval blockade, and halted crude shipments, which tightened hard-currency availability and amplified inflationary pressures exceeding 40 percent annually. Trader consensus has coalesced around the 2.1-2.2 million range as the prevailing end-of-August outcome, reflecting real-money assessments of these persistent supply constraints and eroded confidence. A credible shift away from this band would require rapid de-escalation, major sanctions relief, or successful central bank stabilization measures that restore meaningful access to export revenues within the resolution window.