Robust consumer spending and business fixed investment, especially in equipment and AI-related capex, have driven Atlanta Fed GDPNow and other trackers to levels around 3.0-3.7% annualized for Q3 2026, supporting the 66.5% implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Q2 real GDP came in at 2.2% (third estimate), with the acceleration reflecting resilient personal consumption expenditures near 3.7% and solid equipment outlays, partially offset by a wider trade deficit. Recent labor market data showed September nonfarm payrolls at just 29,000 with unemployment rising to 4.2%, while sticky inflation prompted the Fed’s September rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% range. The BEA advance estimate, due later this month, remains the key catalyst that could shift market-implied odds.