Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$13,600 Объем
$13,600 Объем
Да
$13,600 Объем
$13,600 Объем
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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