Recent monthly GDP readings through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, combined with Q1’s 0.6% outturn, have anchored trader expectations for Q2 around the 0.4–0.5% range that commands 60.5% implied probability. Downward revisions from forecasters such as NIESR to 0.2% reflect softening momentum from higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, which have lifted inflation and mortgage rates while curbing consumer spending and production. These factors explain why the 0.2–0.3% bucket holds 28% odds and why lower or negative outcomes remain in single digits. The upcoming first-quarterly estimate, due shortly, and any further energy-price or labor-market data will likely determine whether the market-implied path shifts toward the lower end of the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0,4–0,5% 91%
Отрицательный 8.4%
0,6–0,7% 5.0%
1,0%+ 1.5%
$34,320 Объем
$34,320 Объем
12 авг. 2026 г.
Отрицательный
8%
0,0–0,1%
26%
0,2–0,3%
1%
0,4–0,5%
91%
0,6–0,7%
5%
0,8–0,9%
1%
1,0%+
2%
0,4–0,5% 91%
Отрицательный 8.4%
0,6–0,7% 5.0%
1,0%+ 1.5%
$34,320 Объем
$34,320 Объем
12 авг. 2026 г.
Отрицательный
$3,811 Объем
8%
0,0–0,1%
$1,345 Объем
26%
0,2–0,3%
$14,646 Объем
1%
0,4–0,5%
$5,810 Объем
91%
0,6–0,7%
$4,230 Объем
5%
0,8–0,9%
$3,906 Объем
1%
1,0%+
$572 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP readings through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, combined with Q1’s 0.6% outturn, have anchored trader expectations for Q2 around the 0.4–0.5% range that commands 60.5% implied probability. Downward revisions from forecasters such as NIESR to 0.2% reflect softening momentum from higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, which have lifted inflation and mortgage rates while curbing consumer spending and production. These factors explain why the 0.2–0.3% bucket holds 28% odds and why lower or negative outcomes remain in single digits. The upcoming first-quarterly estimate, due shortly, and any further energy-price or labor-market data will likely determine whether the market-implied path shifts toward the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$34,320Дата окончания
12 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP readings through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, combined with Q1’s 0.6% outturn, have anchored trader expectations for Q2 around the 0.4–0.5% range that commands 60.5% implied probability. Downward revisions from forecasters such as NIESR to 0.2% reflect softening momentum from higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, which have lifted inflation and mortgage rates while curbing consumer spending and production. These factors explain why the 0.2–0.3% bucket holds 28% odds and why lower or negative outcomes remain in single digits. The upcoming first-quarterly estimate, due shortly, and any further energy-price or labor-market data will likely determine whether the market-implied path shifts toward the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$34,320Дата окончания
12 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly GDP readings through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, combined with Q1’s 0.6% outturn, have anchored trader expectations for Q2 around the 0.4–0.5% range that commands 60.5% implied probability. Downward revisions from forecasters such as NIESR to 0.2% reflect softening momentum from higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, which have lifted inflation and mortgage rates while curbing consumer spending and production. These factors explain why the 0.2–0.3% bucket holds 28% odds and why lower or negative outcomes remain in single digits. The upcoming first-quarterly estimate, due shortly, and any further energy-price or labor-market data will likely determine whether the market-implied path shifts toward the lower end of the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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