Tristan Buckmaster’s public allegations against OpenAI over disputed Navier-Stokes research, including claims of pressure to exclude his Anthropic co-author from credit and possible use of private Codex session data, form the core driver of trader sentiment on this market. The NYU mathematician detailed the September 2026 episode in university statements and interviews, prompting OpenAI and Sébastien Bubeck to deny any access to his work or improper conduct while CEO Sam Altman defended the team’s integrity. No lawsuit has been filed in the month since the dispute surfaced, and Buckmaster has instead emphasized reevaluating academic priorities in an era of large-scale AI compute. Low implied probabilities reflect the high legal and financial barriers to suing a major AI lab, the absence of new escalatory reporting, and the competitive dynamics between OpenAI and Anthropic that frame the underlying conflict.