Two federal investigations continue to shape trader views on the low probability of charges against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz before the end of 2026: one examining his administration’s oversight of large-scale COVID-era welfare and childcare fraud programs, where dozens of operators have faced indictments but Walz has not, and a separate DOJ probe into whether public statements impeded federal immigration enforcement. Congressional referrals and House Oversight hearings have sustained scrutiny and generated referrals to prosecutors, yet subpoenas in the immigration matter were quashed by a federal judge and no indictments have followed. The market reflects the high evidentiary threshold for charging a governor, the absence of direct evidence against Walz personally, and the limited remaining window before resolution, with traders assigning only modest odds to formal charges materializing.