**Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats (S) support consistently in the mid-to-high 20s percent range.** Aggregates place the party at approximately 28.4–28.7% in the latest 30-day averages, with individual surveys from Novus, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, Verian, and Demoskop reporting figures between 26.6% and 29.2% in early September fieldwork. This represents a noticeable decline from earlier summer readings near or above 31–33%, driven by voter shifts toward Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet, and Miljöpartiet. The tightening overall bloc contest and S’s recent statistically significant drops have reinforced trader expectations that support will finish below the 31% threshold, aligning with the 83% implied probability on the Under outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOver
18% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
Over
18% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats (S) support consistently in the mid-to-high 20s percent range.** Aggregates place the party at approximately 28.4–28.7% in the latest 30-day averages, with individual surveys from Novus, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, Verian, and Demoskop reporting figures between 26.6% and 29.2% in early September fieldwork. This represents a noticeable decline from earlier summer readings near or above 31–33%, driven by voter shifts toward Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet, and Miljöpartiet. The tightening overall bloc contest and S’s recent statistically significant drops have reinforced trader expectations that support will finish below the 31% threshold, aligning with the 83% implied probability on the Under outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Объем
$1,323Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats (S) support consistently in the mid-to-high 20s percent range.** Aggregates place the party at approximately 28.4–28.7% in the latest 30-day averages, with individual surveys from Novus, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, Verian, and Demoskop reporting figures between 26.6% and 29.2% in early September fieldwork. This represents a noticeable decline from earlier summer readings near or above 31–33%, driven by voter shifts toward Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet, and Miljöpartiet. The tightening overall bloc contest and S’s recent statistically significant drops have reinforced trader expectations that support will finish below the 31% threshold, aligning with the 83% implied probability on the Under outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Объем
$1,323Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats (S) support consistently in the mid-to-high 20s percent range.** Aggregates place the party at approximately 28.4–28.7% in the latest 30-day averages, with individual surveys from Novus, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, Verian, and Demoskop reporting figures between 26.6% and 29.2% in early September fieldwork. This represents a noticeable decline from earlier summer readings near or above 31–33%, driven by voter shifts toward Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet, and Miljöpartiet. The tightening overall bloc contest and S’s recent statistically significant drops have reinforced trader expectations that support will finish below the 31% threshold, aligning with the 83% implied probability on the Under outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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