Recent polling averages place the center-right Partido Popular (PP) at 32-34% support, well ahead of the ruling PSOE on 25-27% and Vox on 18-19%, positioning PP as the clear frontrunner to finish first in the November 29 snap election. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s October 5 decision to dissolve parliament followed parliamentary defeats on housing measures, shifting focus to voter priorities on the economy and living costs while highlighting coalition challenges for the left. Traders assign PP an 88% implied probability of winning, reflecting the party’s sustained lead and the right’s projected path to a parliamentary majority, though seat allocation under Spain’s electoral system and potential late shifts remain variables ahead of the vote.