Strong El Niño conditions, projected to reach very strong intensity through December 2026 with over 95% probability, combined with INMET forecasts for below-average October rainfall and elevated temperatures in northern Minas Gerais, represent the main catalyst behind the closely clustered market odds around 20–40% buckets for peak severe drought. These factors threaten soil moisture deficits during Arabica coffee flowering, raising risks of flower abortion and poor fruit set, consistent with historical ENSO impacts on Southeast Brazil precipitation. However, recent above-average rains in parts of Minas Gerais through early October, alongside forecast model variability and potential November recovery, sustain uncertainty about whether deficits will intensify to severe thresholds during the critical growing window. Upcoming INMET and NOAA updates on soil moisture and ENSO evolution will likely refine trader assessments.