Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman holds a polling edge over Republican challenger Orlando Sonza in Ohio's competitive 1st Congressional District, driving trader consensus to imply a 65.5% chance for the Democratic Party. Recent surveys, including The Ohio Poll from October 21-23 showing Landsman at 47% to Sonza's 41%, reinforce this positioning amid ongoing early voting and absentee ballots. Landsman's fundraising advantage and incumbency in a battleground district with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index underpin the lead, while Sonza's attacks on crime and border security have narrowed but not erased the gap. Forecasting models like 538 give Landsman around a 75% win probability, though national trends and turnout in swing states could still influence the November 5 outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоOH-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
OH-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
66%
Республиканская партия
49%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
66%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
49%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman holds a polling edge over Republican challenger Orlando Sonza in Ohio's competitive 1st Congressional District, driving trader consensus to imply a 65.5% chance for the Democratic Party. Recent surveys, including The Ohio Poll from October 21-23 showing Landsman at 47% to Sonza's 41%, reinforce this positioning amid ongoing early voting and absentee ballots. Landsman's fundraising advantage and incumbency in a battleground district with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index underpin the lead, while Sonza's attacks on crime and border security have narrowed but not erased the gap. Forecasting models like 538 give Landsman around a 75% win probability, though national trends and turnout in swing states could still influence the November 5 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman holds a polling edge over Republican challenger Orlando Sonza in Ohio's competitive 1st Congressional District, driving trader consensus to imply a 65.5% chance for the Democratic Party. Recent surveys, including The Ohio Poll from October 21-23 showing Landsman at 47% to Sonza's 41%, reinforce this positioning amid ongoing early voting and absentee ballots. Landsman's fundraising advantage and incumbency in a battleground district with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index underpin the lead, while Sonza's attacks on crime and border security have narrowed but not erased the gap. Forecasting models like 538 give Landsman around a 75% win probability, though national trends and turnout in swing states could still influence the November 5 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman holds a polling edge over Republican challenger Orlando Sonza in Ohio's competitive 1st Congressional District, driving trader consensus to imply a 65.5% chance for the Democratic Party. Recent surveys, including The Ohio Poll from October 21-23 showing Landsman at 47% to Sonza's 41%, reinforce this positioning amid ongoing early voting and absentee ballots. Landsman's fundraising advantage and incumbency in a battleground district with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index underpin the lead, while Sonza's attacks on crime and border security have narrowed but not erased the gap. Forecasting models like 538 give Landsman around a 75% win probability, though national trends and turnout in swing states could still influence the November 5 outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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