Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 4th Congressional District, driven by his double-digit advantage in the latest polls, including a mid-October survey showing him ahead 52%-44% over Republican challenger Sam Peters amid strong Democratic performance in early voting. Horsford's incumbency advantage, bolstered by fundraising edges and support from key Black and Latino voting blocs in the Las Vegas-area district, has solidified his position despite a competitive national House environment. Republicans trail at 12.5%, facing an uphill battle in this D+3 Cook PVI seat as the November 5 election approaches, with turnout dynamics as the pivotal factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
80%
Республиканская партия
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
80%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 4th Congressional District, driven by his double-digit advantage in the latest polls, including a mid-October survey showing him ahead 52%-44% over Republican challenger Sam Peters amid strong Democratic performance in early voting. Horsford's incumbency advantage, bolstered by fundraising edges and support from key Black and Latino voting blocs in the Las Vegas-area district, has solidified his position despite a competitive national House environment. Republicans trail at 12.5%, facing an uphill battle in this D+3 Cook PVI seat as the November 5 election approaches, with turnout dynamics as the pivotal factor.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 4th Congressional District, driven by his double-digit advantage in the latest polls, including a mid-October survey showing him ahead 52%-44% over Republican challenger Sam Peters amid strong Democratic performance in early voting. Horsford's incumbency advantage, bolstered by fundraising edges and support from key Black and Latino voting blocs in the Las Vegas-area district, has solidified his position despite a competitive national House environment. Republicans trail at 12.5%, facing an uphill battle in this D+3 Cook PVI seat as the November 5 election approaches, with turnout dynamics as the pivotal factor.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 4th Congressional District, driven by his double-digit advantage in the latest polls, including a mid-October survey showing him ahead 52%-44% over Republican challenger Sam Peters amid strong Democratic performance in early voting. Horsford's incumbency advantage, bolstered by fundraising edges and support from key Black and Latino voting blocs in the Las Vegas-area district, has solidified his position despite a competitive national House environment. Republicans trail at 12.5%, facing an uphill battle in this D+3 Cook PVI seat as the November 5 election approaches, with turnout dynamics as the pivotal factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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