Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40-50% across ranges, the <$23,500 outcome edging ahead at 50% amid fears of an AI-driven correction despite the index's recent surge to around 26,600 following a 6.8% weekly gain last week. Sustained 13-day winning streak fueled by mega-cap tech earnings and dovish Fed signals has lifted higher bins like $33,000-$36,000 (44%) and >$36,000 (41.9%), but elevated valuations, capex sustainability questions, and Treasury yield pressures differentiate downside risks from bullish AI adoption scenarios. Key swing factors include Q2 earnings in July, FOMC summer meetings, and inflation data through year-end, with historical precedents suggesting rotation away from concentrated tech leadership.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,500–$25,000 79%
$33,000–$36,000 42%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
$30 500–$33 000 41%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ниже $23,500
51%
$23,500–$25,000
79%
$25 000–$26 500
40%
$26,500-$28,500
41%
$28,500–$30,500
39%
$30 500–$33 000
41%
$33,000–$36,000
42%
>$36,000
41%
$23,500–$25,000 79%
$33,000–$36,000 42%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
$30 500–$33 000 41%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ниже $23,500
$0 Объем
51%
$23,500–$25,000
$10 Объем
79%
$25 000–$26 500
$0 Объем
40%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Объем
41%
$28,500–$30,500
$0 Объем
39%
$30 500–$33 000
$0 Объем
41%
$33,000–$36,000
$0 Объем
42%
>$36,000
$42 Объем
41%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40-50% across ranges, the <$23,500 outcome edging ahead at 50% amid fears of an AI-driven correction despite the index's recent surge to around 26,600 following a 6.8% weekly gain last week. Sustained 13-day winning streak fueled by mega-cap tech earnings and dovish Fed signals has lifted higher bins like $33,000-$36,000 (44%) and >$36,000 (41.9%), but elevated valuations, capex sustainability questions, and Treasury yield pressures differentiate downside risks from bullish AI adoption scenarios. Key swing factors include Q2 earnings in July, FOMC summer meetings, and inflation data through year-end, with historical precedents suggesting rotation away from concentrated tech leadership.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Объем
$52Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40-50% across ranges, the <$23,500 outcome edging ahead at 50% amid fears of an AI-driven correction despite the index's recent surge to around 26,600 following a 6.8% weekly gain last week. Sustained 13-day winning streak fueled by mega-cap tech earnings and dovish Fed signals has lifted higher bins like $33,000-$36,000 (44%) and >$36,000 (41.9%), but elevated valuations, capex sustainability questions, and Treasury yield pressures differentiate downside risks from bullish AI adoption scenarios. Key swing factors include Q2 earnings in July, FOMC summer meetings, and inflation data through year-end, with historical precedents suggesting rotation away from concentrated tech leadership.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$52Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40-50% across ranges, the <$23,500 outcome edging ahead at 50% amid fears of an AI-driven correction despite the index's recent surge to around 26,600 following a 6.8% weekly gain last week. Sustained 13-day winning streak fueled by mega-cap tech earnings and dovish Fed signals has lifted higher bins like $33,000-$36,000 (44%) and >$36,000 (41.9%), but elevated valuations, capex sustainability questions, and Treasury yield pressures differentiate downside risks from bullish AI adoption scenarios. Key swing factors include Q2 earnings in July, FOMC summer meetings, and inflation data through year-end, with historical precedents suggesting rotation away from concentrated tech leadership.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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